POLLEN AND OTHER PROXY-BASED RECONSTRUCTIONS AND PMIP SIMULATIONS OF THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE: AN ATTEMPT TO HARMONIZE THE DATA-MODEL COMPARISON PROCEDURE
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Abstract:
Tests with the meteorological data demonstrate that climate models simulate modern temperature much better than more complex patterns of the moisture balance. However, the confidence level of the model simulations and reconstruction from geological records is relatively low in mountain and coastal regions. This reality should be taken into account when the comparisons between geological data and past climate simulations are performed. In the present study we performed data-model comparison for LGM with an example of mean annual temperature. The use of all available sites shows many discrepancies between simulations and reconstructions. However, results become surprisingly good when ambiguous sites are excluded from the comparison. In the few cases, when simulated and reconstructed results are different, uncertainties in the boundary conditions are considered as main factor for such discrepancies. By using regional averages of the simulated and reconstructed values we demonstrated that PMIP models correctly simulate annual temperature at the regional scale across the Earth's land. This important conclusion is difficult to get from regional studies that often use unselected data for the model validation.
