ANALYSIS OF THE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS OF MARINE FOSSILS AROUND THE PERMIAN-TRIASSIC BOUNDARY IN MEISHAN, ZHEJIANG
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Abstract:
Preservation and sampling of fossils are random and incomplete, and thus the real patterns of bio events in fossil records are commonly smeared. With helps of statistical perspective the nature of mass extinction can be revealed from fossil records. Based on the data of fossils collected and studied in detail of the Permian Triassic sections at Meishan of Changxing County, Zhejiang Province during the last three decades, an apparently multi phase pattern around the P T boundary has been suggested. In this paper, the analysis of the confidence intervals of 93 genera of Meishan section, including 264 species, have shown a different pattern of the P T biomass extinction. The last occurrences of 25 percent of the fossil records reached the P/T boundary at 251.4 Ma, and 10 percent reached 250.6 Ma in the Early Triassic. The estimation of taxonomic ranges by calculating the confidence intervals of fossil records indicates that the P T biomass extinction was actually a sudden and catastrophic event. The predicted position of the extinction horizon lies between 251.28Ma and 251.45Ma with a confidence of 92.8%.
